Best-of-Three Scoring

★ 6/10StatisticsprobabilityCasework

Problem

A player enters a best-of-three match (first to win two games wins the match). Each game is won with probability pp (0<p<10 < p < 1) and lost with probability 1−p1 - p, independently across games.

1. For p=23p = \dfrac{2}{3}, find the probability that the player wins the match. 2. Two scoring schemes are proposed:

  • Scheme 1: the match winner scores 33 points, the loser scores −2-2;
  • Scheme 2: the match winner scores 11 point, the loser scores 00.

Discuss which scheme gives the player the larger expected score, in terms of pp.

Answer

Solution

Difficulty6/10
TopicsStatistics, probability, Casework

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