Three Steps to the Fourth Stair

Problem

Climbing a staircase, each step is 11 stair with probability 23\dfrac{2}{3} or 22 stairs with probability 13\dfrac{1}{3}, independently. Given that the climber lands exactly on stair 44 at some point, find the conditional probability that reaching it took exactly 33 steps.

Answer

Solution

Difficulty5/10
Topicscombinatorics, Counting, probability, Casework

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